South East Asia is going to be a strategic war checkerboard for the next great game. The tensions have increased in recent weeks over North Korea that has threatened a nuclear strike against South Korea and the United States and has caused the US to move missiles to its east coast….Most experts view North Korea’s recent threat to be bluster. The US has stationed nearly 30, 000 troops on the Korean border since 1950. Now the message to Kim Jon-un is that if you attack South Korea, you must pass us first. That is what has prevented war in the region for more than fifty years. Why would North Korea’s leader play with fire? I am sure he knows that if North Korea attacks American interests in the region, it means the end of North Korea’s régime. For sure Kim Jon-un is aware of that and does not want a short-lived reign, wanting instead to continue ruling North Korea and not be suicidal. Therefore, they will not attack South Korea and the US unless South Korea and the US provoke the North and are willing to end the regime in North Korea.
So why is North Korea blustering and making such provocative statements and behaviors? Or is this part of the US’s defense strategy that has shifted the Asian balance of power in the region? America may have rearranged its military force in the region to balance China’s rising power and used North Korea as an excuse to avoid getting any reaction from China. Last week, the US announced that it was moving an advanced missiles defense system, the ballistic Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD), to the Island of Guam, where the US maintains a large naval base that is the home base of dozens of ships in the US Pacific fleet. The THAAD includes interceptor missiles and advanced tracking radar, together with an integrated fire control system. The current North Korean crisis will help the US to deploy this kind of highly advanced missile system to Guam without making China upset.
It is a great opportunity for the US, but also it could pose a threat to China. I believe the current tensions with North Korea is all about the balance of power between China and the US and helps the US to beef up its defenses against China. To sum up, North Korea is not the greatest threat to the South East Asian countries, but instead China is such a threat to its neighboring countries.
That is why the surrounding countries, such as Singapore, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand, all maintain their military relationship with the US. Anything regarding the US’s increasing presence in the region is a precautionary move to strengthen the US defense posture against the North Korean ballistic missiles threat. In the decline of the US as a global power, the biggest change to US power comes from the rise of China, economically and militarily. The US is not yet ready to give up its global power to China. That is why President Obama shifted America’s main focus from the Middle East to South East Asia, a move called “ Pivot to Asia.” The foreign, defense, and economic policies are designed to counter China’s hegemonic power in the region and globally as well. For example, the US opened a new Marine base in Australia and also a second missiles system in Japan; it deployed US warships to the Singapore naval base where they can watch the Chinese’s maritime trade route in the Pacific.
There are several reasons that have caused the North Korea leader to act foolishly. One is that many think he is young and does not have much experience in international crisis management, besides his hanging out with America’s famous former basketball player, Dennis Rodman, and playing games on the Internet. The second reason is that this year all of the major players and leaders are new and have been in office for only a short period of time.
All seem to be very nationalistic in terms of defense issues. On the other hand, the US would like to reduce its defense budget and buy with the money saved in Afghanistan, programs to manage its economic crisis at home. Third, the survival of North Korea and it strength depends on North Korea ‘s nuclear weapons. History has proven that countries with nuclear weapons do not get easily attacked, such as Pakistan; by contrast, countries that do not have nuclear weapons or that gave up these weapons did get attacked easily such as Libya under Kaddafi, Syria and Iraq under Saddam. North Korea has expressed a desire to have recognition as a nuclear weapons state to guarantee the regime’s survival.
However, the US will not accept a nuclear North Korea. The fourth reason that North Korea is trying to get world attention is that if North Korea’s regime collapses, most likely the economically weak North Korea will be united with the economically strong South Korea. A united Korea with nuclear weapons could be the worst picture for China. China has only one friend in the region and that is North Korea, and China might lose this one ally soon. The crisis with North Korea is part of a script written by South Korea and the US to counter China if the need arises.
That is why China also is getting upset with North Korea’s current answering of South Korea and US provocation because the jockeying does not help China anymore but gives incentives for the US and its Chinese neighbors to beef up their military. Therefore, I do not believe the North Korea will make the foolish mistake of attacking South Korea or US Interests in the region and will not destroy itself, as long as South Korea and the US do not provoke North Korea to have a war with them.
Dr. Aland Mizell is with the University of Mindanao School of Social Science, President of the MCI and a regular contributor to The Kurdistan Tribune, Kurdishaspect.com, Mindanao Times and Kurdish Media.You may email the author at:aland_mizell2@hotmail.com.