The geopolitics of the Black Sea peninsula has one more time become the center of major events. International politics is not about charity; it is all about national interests, and President Putin does have a national interest in the Ukraine. Thus Putin will do anything to protect that interest. Putin does not want NATO and the US military bases at his back door and will at all cost try to keep NATO and the US out of his border.
The Russians are already in Crimea, in accordance with a bilateral agreement with the Ukraine in which a cash-strapped Ukraine agreed to lease its naval facilities to Russia. Russia’s military industrial complex and its own Black Sea Fleet are in Ukraine’s port of Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula, which is also a way to transit natural gas to Europe.
Russians are making an argument that Western backed armed, racist gangsters stormed the government buildings In Ukraine and replaced the government that supported the West and the US government. So why can Russian forces not do the same thing in Crimea, because Russians have high stakes there. I do not agree with many Western and American journalists who are saying that Putin is trying to bring back the Soviet Union. We all know that the Soviet Union is gone forever, and there is no way it can come back again. I have had so many friends who were enjoying the benefits of free market economy because the Russian economy is depending on its mineral resources to sale to the Western market, but without modernization and diversification, this economic system will not come to pass for Moscow.
Despite appeals from the EU, NATO and the United States, which are threatening Russia if Putin does not withdraw his troops from Crimea, Russia continues to build up its military on the Black Sea peninsula and to take control of the region.
The real question is will the US, the EU, and NATO stop the Russian President’s control in the Crimean region? The answer is “no” because Ukraine’s economy is a big mess. The economies of Europe and the US are similarly in trouble, so can they force the members of those international organizations to come up with some form of emergency support for Ukraine? We know the US Secretary of State has been saying that we have already talked to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other donors, and that they will help Ukraine. They may help short term, but in the long term Ukraine needs enormous help.
How will the US and Europe solve the clan struggles between Ukraine’s oligarchs, its corruption scandals, and regional differences between its eastern and western parts? I do not believe America and the EU can do anything to stop Russia because the situation in Ukraine is extremely complex, and what needs to be done is that both parties should be calm to avoid escalation. Also, America is no longer the strong leader of a one-polar world, but instead we live in a multi-polar system. Further, Putin knows that the US will not attack Russia, and that the only thing it can do is place economic sanctions on Moscow.
The rise of China has caused a global balance of power. America has lost its credibility in the region. Since China has territorial problems with its neighboring countries, such as water rights in the South China Sea, the US has offered assistance, but China continues to reject the US involvement in its neighbors’ territorial governments. Therefore, China will support Russia diplomatically. Putin knows there is huge vacuum in international order. Putin claims that this is a double standard by the West and the US because the United States helped Yugoslavia gain its independence, despite Serbian resistance. Another example would be that the US and other European countries supported the independence of South Sudan. Consequently, if the people in Crimea want to be part of Russia because they consider themselves more Russian than Ukrainian, since they share cultural, linguistic and historical connections with Russia, then why is it being considered unconstitutional?
Russia will fight to protect the ethnic Russian population in Crimea for several reasons. Putin does not recognize the Ukrainian interim government, saying it is an illegitimate government, ruled by a bunch of right wing nationalists who were backed by the West to oust the democratically elected government; thus, in his view, the newly instated government is unconstitutional. Putin basically is telling the West and the US not to give him lectures on democracy anymore because those who ousted former President Yanukovich are not democratic. Putin contends that they are racists and a gang of Nazis. Therefore, Russia had the right to protect Russian citizens in Ukraine, he argues, and furthermore, the Russian parliament has voted to change the law to make it easier to annex the territory of “Pro-Russians.”
Most likely the residents of Crimea will vote in a referendum this Monday to leave Ukraine in order to be part of Russia. The West and the US government are already saying that they will not recognize the Crimea as part of Russia because a Crimean referendum would violate both Ukraine’s constitution and international law. However, Crimea could become one of Moscow’s own local administrations protected by Russian troops.
Many people in Crimea see the current government as an illegitimate government as well. However, Putin’s actions to send the troops into Ukraine’s should be condemned. His actions violated the 1975 Helsinki Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) in its setting up détente after the Cold War; the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in which Ukraine surrendered its nuclear arsenal for the promise that Russia would respect its territorial integrity; and the 1997 bilateral Friendship Agreement and Partnership, which assured the “inviolability of its borders.” However, the latter provided one escape clause, “The protection of the ethnic, cultural, linguistic, and religious originality of national minorities on their territory and create conditions for the encouragement of that originality.” It is this caveat that Putin has latched onto for his rationale to invade Crimea.
If the international community sincerely wishes to solve Ukraine’s crisis, first they have to assure Putin that Ukraine will not be a candidate for NATO expansion. Putin does not want NATO within his border because that is his greatest fear. Economic sanctions will not work but will only backfire. A peaceful solution to Ukraine crisis is possible, if there is a realistic approach to stopping the Russian President; otherwise, the problem may escalate.
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