We cannot predict the future. Yet one thing is certain. China is emerging as a superpower, both economically and militarily. We already see that China is a big regional power in the Pacific region and is extending its global influence in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and even Europe. China has re-armed with modern weapons for its armed forces and has the largest military in the world in terms of the number of military personnel. As of now, only two countries in Asia Pacific can compete with China, Japan and India. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) prediction, by 2019, China will have the world’s biggest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP). However, according to analysts, militarily China is at least three decades behind the United States. So when China truly challenges America militarily and is able to deploy its military around the world to defend its interests, that will be the time we assume China is a global power.
China is thirsty for resources and will do anything to get them. That is why China made its claims on the Philippine territory, citing historical documents that date to the fifth or sixth century. President Franklin D. Roosevelt once said, “Great power involves great responsibility.” The question is if China becomes a superpower, will China behave arrogantly and immorally showing no respect for other nations such as the Philippines that have a weak military or will it behave responsibly? According to Joseph S. Nye, a professor at Harvard, “In the 21st century, military power will not have the same utility for states that it had in the 19th and 20th centuries, but it will remain a crucial part of world politics.” As we see, China already has emerged as an economic superpower with its gradual evolution to a military power. That is why China‘s ASEAN relations will be a very important test to see if China can be a model for good neighbors in the entire region like the United States is with Canada and Mexico.
The problem with China is that China has problems with all its neighbors. The Philippine government brought a complaint against China’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea to the United Nations’ Arbitral Tribunal, which adjudicated and forced China to agree in principle to hold discussions with the ASEAN countries on a code of conduct disputes over the water territory known as the South China or West Philippine Seas.
It is true that trade and economic relations have increased but still countries do not trust China’s motives totally. For example, China‘s recent incursions into the Philippines controlled Maritimes area to blockade Philippines ships from reaching the second forebode a distrustful relationship. It expedited the current bilateral negotiations for the Aquino government to have strong ties with the United States and a more permanent US presence. The United States and Philippines have reached an agreement on the contours of a new defense pact. Formalization of the pact is expected to happen during President Obama’s scheduled visit to the Philippine this month of April.
The Philippines now realizes that it cannot trust China anymore and seeks to bolster military ties with the United States to counterbalance China’s provocative behavior over the South China Sea. Since 9/11, as part of global war on terror, close to 500 American personnel working with the Special Operations Command Pacific (SOCPAC) have been stationed In Mindanao. However, some of the prominent legislators have raised concern about the legality of the permanent American bases in the Philippines; therefore, Aquino’s government would like to activate already existing treaties between the US and the Philippines, such as the Mutual Defense Treaty in 1951 and the 1999 RP-US Visiting Force Agreement, so that President Aquino does not need approval from the legislators.
The Philippines government would like to get the military hardware, surveillance equipment, and shared naval intelligence for the Filipino military to defend the South China Sea. The question is whether the United States’ involvement in the region will pressure China to behave more responsibly toward its neighbors or to continue hardening its geopolitical ambitions. How can China win its neighbors’ trust? Can China learn lessons from the United States of America’s relations with Europe? How did America and Europe build trust? Even though they are separated by the Atlantic Ocean and sometimes have economic disagreements between the EU and the US, still the US and Europe manage to trust each other.
Many ASEAN countries do not trust China. If China, not now fully a global power but rather a bullying neighbor, becomes a global power tomorrow, what will China do? I believe that if China builds trust among the ASEAN countries, the ASEAN countries can work together with China to find a solution concerning the South China Sea without American involvement and can build trust among its neighbor the way America built it with its bordering neighbors and with Europe.
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