Russia’s military action in Syria has no exit plan. Pundits and experts have argued about whether Russia is trying to rescue Assad or whether it is fighting ISIS. What is Russia‘s Putin really trying to do in the Middle East? Another question is will Putin’s foreign policy in the Middle East succeed? These questions are often politically significant; however, the Western perception that Putin is there to fight against ISIS is wrong. The international system is in crisis and urgently needs a new system of governance. Turkey’s President Recep Tayip Erdogan rightly argues that our world is bigger than five, which means that more than 193 countries’ peace and security depend on five countries in the United Nations’ Security Council, a ratio that must change. I do not understand why the international community is not pressuring the United Nations’ Security Council to change.
Russia is openly protecting Assad’s regime, and ISIS is just an excuse for Russia to return to the Middle East. During the Cold War the United States managed to switch Egyptian President Anwar Sadat’s loyalty from the Russians to the Americans. Under Obama ‘s leadership the United States has lost its credibility in the Middle East and now does not know who is really an ally and who is a foe. Russia has been absent in the Middle East since the Cold War. Today the problem with the United States is that the leaders are struggling to understand who are mainstream rebels, who is ready to lead Syria, and who, if anyone, should receive weapons from the US, The Russian President stood by its Syrian allies while the United States’ President failed its Kurdish allies and failed to provide even proper weapons to the Peshmerger to fight against the ISIS.
Russia has thrown its hat into the Syrian Civil War adding another dimension to the already complex conflict. Putin is playing the Kurdish card to shake up Washington and Ankara. It is no secret that Putin seeks to disrupt Washington’s alliances and aspires to weaken NATO’s as well. America is trying not to lose the Syrian Kurds to the Russians. Therefore, the American partnership with the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) has created severe tensions between Ankara and Washington. Turkey is wrongly accusing the PYD of perpetrating violence to change the political order in Turkey, and is arguing that the PYD’s success in Syria will aid the PKK. The war between the PKK and the Turkish army has claimed an estimated forty thousand lives over several decades. The President of Turkey, Erdogan, angrily asked whether the United States was on Turkey’s side or on that of the Syrian Kurdish group, PYD. I am sure that many Americans are angrily asking the same question to Erdogan about Turkey’s past stand toward the ISIS.
Putin’s Doctrine in Syria has the potential to shift the long-term geostrategic outlook for the Middle East. At the beginning of the Arab Spring Russia saw the events with the Arab world as a type of American color revolution, but that view has changed. The long-term view for Russia is that radical Islam, if left unchecked, has the potential to radicalize the Muslim population within Russian territory. That is why America and Western countries know that Putin is protecting the Assad regime and bombing the opponent groups, not the ISIS. The events in Syria will have huge implication not just for Russia, but also for Turkey, the United States, and important regional players such as, Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia.
Russia remains the world largest countries in geographic terms, and possesses one of the two major stockpiles of nuclear weapons on earth. The Putin Doctrine is based on action, as the Obama Doctrine has failed based on risk aversion designed to manage the decline of American influence in the region. The Putin Doctrine is a decisive game changer trying to imperialize the Russian foreign policy in order to try to reestablish the image of the Soviet Russia. It is Putin’s aggressive rejection of NATO’s expansion at its border. The Doctrine also outmaneuvered Obama to get rid of the Assad regime’s chemical weapons.
Putin is trying to have naval access to the Mediterranean via bases in Syria and to secure Russian influence in the Middle East. Russia has deployed advanced aircraft SU-25 and the flying tank Hind helicopter. The goal of Putin is to establish a permanent military power in the Middle East with a fraction of the cost in money, lives, and time.
Turkey fears that the Syrian Kurds will establish their own state on the Turkish Syrian border, which could prove destabilizing to a country with a twenty million Kurdish population. The Turkish President hates the Syrian Kurds; he thinks Syria’s Kurds are worse than the ISIS. I do not agree that Syrian Kurds are worse than the ISIS. I believe Syrian Kurds are fighting for their natural rights. The Syrian Kurds took their lead from the Kurds in Northern Iraq, who have established their own autonomy in the oil rich region now known as Kurdistan (KRG).
Putin’s close relationships with Iran, the Iraqi central government, Syrian Kurds, and the Assad regime seem considerably limiting to Americans and their allies, like Turkey’s power and activities in the Middle East. There is no question that tensions between Turkey and the USA result from differences over what degree that the US is supporting the Syrian Kurdish nationalists’ Democratic Union Party, the PYD. It was no secret almost from the beginning of the Syrian Civil War in March 2011, that the USA, Turkey, and other Gulf countries have been supporting all the Jihadist groups in order to overthrow the Assad regime. Turkey supported these groups not only in order to topple the Assad regime, but also to fight against the Kurds and not to let the Kurds become more powerful in Syria. In July 2014, Turkey and the US made an agreement that Turkey would allow the US and NATO air forces to use the Incirlik Air Base. Turkey and the United States were not on the same page regarding strategies and tactics related to the way to destroy the ISIS. The Obama administration’s objectives were to contain the ISIS, not to destroy the ISIS.
Syria is a proxy war involving Turkey, Iran, Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and European countries. Turkey and Saudi Arabia’s recent actions have caused a great deal of nervousness in the region. Sauidi Arabia has already sent combat aircraft to Turkey and is ready to send ground troops to fight the ISIS. It is clear that the Saudis and the Turks are sending a strong message that they are ready to fight back. The goal is not to destroy the ISIS but to contain the expansion of Iran’s Shia religion in the region because Turkey and Saudi have been very nervous about Iran’s power in the Middle East. The Obama administration sees no gain from military involvement dating back to the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan and, therefore, is not committing its military to a ground campaign in Syria. In the meantime Putin has made it clear that he is not going to listen to the Americans or to any Western countries. The United States has lost its credibility and has become a footnote in the Middle East where it used to dominate and where it had significant credibility. The world is laughing at America, but President Obama cannot hear the message.
Dr. Aland Mizell is President of the MCI and a regular contributor to Mindanao Times. You may email the author at:aland_mizell2@hotmail.com