In the past few years, the Philippines have emerged as one of the greatest critics of China. Under the Aquino administration, the Southeast Asian countries tried security alliances with America and Japan, sought to mobilize ASEAN against China, and made the unprecedented decision to take Beijing to international court in order to settle the maritime disputes. However, with the Duterte administration rapidly consolidating its position at the center of the Philippine political system, President Duterte is also introducing a significant foreign policy shift, especially with the United States and China. Unlike the previous administration of Aquino, he has deployed former president Fidel Ramos to conduct negotitiations with China. There is reason to expect a big reset in the Philippines’ foreign policy under this President’s administration because he had a history of good relations with the Chinese community when he was in mayor of Davao. In fact, one of Duterte‘s right-hand men is a Chinese himself.With respect to relations with the United States President Duterte did not have a very good history especially when it comes to fighting insurgents in the Mindanao region or to the war on terrorists. The President welcomed massive Chinese investments in the realm of public infrastructure and downplayed territorial disputes in the South China Sea, emphasizing the necessity of separating areas of conflict from zones of convergence in mutual interest.
President Duterte is trying to have a more independent foreign policy, which mean less reliance on America. He does not trust America and other foreign powers especially in terms of their interfering in the Philippines’ domestic affairs, which the United States, the United Nations, and other countries have done in criticizing President Duterte’s full-fledged anti-crime campaign. With slightly more than two months in office, President Duterte shows his commitment to stand by his campaign promises to crackdown on organized crime, corruption, and illegal drugs. The country is at war on crime. He has extended his anti-crime campaign to the upper level of society, targeting high-ranking officials, lawmakers, generals, police, politicians, and businessmen. President Duterte has also declared his willingness to end any large-scale mining in the country if the companies do not use clean mining and do not invest in the nation.
The Duterte administration has already become a proactive agent, taking on illegal drugs, corruption, crony capitalists, and peace in Mindanao. Duterte has considered confidence-building measures, from freeing key communist leaders to declaring war on Abu Sayyaf groups, at the same time trying to build up the morale of the government soldiers.
The President is considering a trip to China for his first official state visit to repair ragged relations over its expansion goals. President Duterte has constantly said that he will hold direct dialogue with the Chinese leadership regarding disputes. Yet, the rivalry between China and the Untied States is potentially the most important geopolitical issue facing American policymakers today. Will America manage to accommodate a rising China trying to expand its influence in the Asia Pacific region and in particular in the South China Sea? The Philippines foreign policy must take into consideration this tension for the sake of its own peace and stability.
The President is returning from his first international trip as President to Laos for an ASEAN summit and then from Indonesia where he met with the Filipino community there. Duterte promised yet again that he would have an independent foreign policy. He also called for the US troops to leave Southern Mindanao. Yet, regarding the Philippines’ relations with the United States, he cannot afford to alienate this superpower, whose absence would have a huge impact on the Philippine security establishment, especially on counterterrorism.
Philippines need to modernize the Philippine armed forces as well as to build and improve military infrastructure and facilities. It would be in the Philippines’ interest to continue its ongoing modernization program of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, but the country would certainly need the help of the United States. Given the country’s three important security challenges, the South China Sea, domestic security, and natural disaster, it would be to the Philippines’ benefit to accelerate the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the US. The Philippines is central to the US’s rebalance to Asia, so Washington stands to benefit from the bilateral agreement particularly in its use of military bases. Similarly, the Philippines Supreme Court voted to uphold the executive agreement that bolsters the alliance and thus cooperative security in the face of China’s build up of islands and maritime activities.
International politics are not about charity but rather about interests. Also, international politics show that nothing is absolutely black or white. Complexity is the name of the game. It is, therefore, in the Philippines’ interest if the Duterte Administrations maintains its balanced relations with both China and America, refusing to jump into one camp over the other. Engaging China bilaterally is a good direction.
The Administration also continues to see the importance of regional players as well as carrying on its good relationship with America and others. Cutting the relations with the outside world would not help the Philippines’ national interests. Ultimately, President Duterte will become a greater player in the regional geopolitical landscape than the previous administration.
The three pillars of the Philippines foreign policy are national security, economic security, and the protection of Filipinos overseas. If China and the Philippines continue to assert their sovereignty in the South China Sea despite the ruling from the arbitration tribunal, then we might expect the militarization of the disputed areas. The protection of Filipinos overseas requires increased job opportunities at home. The reason Filipinos want to go overseas is because of the lack of jobs at home. The lack of these opportunities at home, then forces Filipinos to seek other alternatives elsewhere even going to risky places. If there were job security and thus economic security here, then the chances of Filipinos overseas being exploited would be lessened.
It is for sure that President Duterte faces a number of significant foreign policy challenges, and his responses can be as consequential as permanently losing the country’s territorial and maritime claims in the South China Seas. Duterte‘s South China Sea policy will have the most consequences for the fast changing geopolitical security in the region. The President is right to implement a gradual military build up but will never be able to achieve a military balance with China, America, or Japan. The two strategic partners of the Philippines should be ready to provide the Duterte administration with diplomatic, military, and paramilitary assistance that it would need to maintain the status quo. Under the Duterte administration the Philippine foreign policy most likely will continue to balance the US presence for deterrence against friendly deliberations with China.
Dr. Aland Mizell is President of the MCI and a regular contributor to Mindanao Times. You may email the author at:aland_mizell2@hotmail.com