Ukraine went through a regime change due to a military coup on February 22nd after months of clashes between the pro-Russians and the supporters of Ukraine’s affiliation with the West. The country’s parliament ousted President Viktor Yanukovych; former Ukrainian Crimean Peninsula rejoined Russia as a result of a referendum; anti government protests have been spreading across the mainly ethnic, Russian-speaking cities like Donetsk; and the Luhanks region wanted to have autonomy, later changed the Ukraine Constitution, and elected a new president on May 25th. If the West keeps refusing to engage in dialogue with Russia or castigating Russia, it will not help Ukraine nor its strategy is not going to be successful; rather, it is going to be counterproductive. Western media are trying to draw the picture that Russia will expand its reach and take over the neighboring countries as well. In international politics, or in a civilized world, the notion of the strongest country harassing or taking over a weaker country is morally unacceptable, but in real politics the strong always makes the weak follow its demands.
The origin of this current crisis in Ukraine is caused by the West’s endless expansion of NATO toward Russia resulting in distrust between Russia and the West. The West wanted to protect its interest in Ukraine and jockeyed to keep in power someone they like, but Russia wanted to keep its interest and to install someone who will cater to Russian interests. If the West keeps talking about democracy, then they should not disregard the Crimea’s referendum and the will of the people even if they believe that Russia rallied the people to its cause. Russia will most likely not take over other neighboring countries; however, like any other international actors, Russia will make sure to protect its own interests.
The question arises, “Can Ukraine be at war with Russia politically while coexisting with it and prospering economically?” In a global economy are economic sanctions enough to deal with Putin? Or should the West and the United States have a dialogue with Putin or consider Russian interests in Ukraine as well? Would tough measures make the situation worse? With Ukraine’s elections now over and a new president just sworn in, it is time for the new president to engage its neighbor rather than to keep asking for help from NATO, the European Union, or the United States. The West and America seem to be overlooking the annexation of Crimea because Crimea itself decided to join Russia.
The new president or Russia should understand that the West is weak, disunited, and devoid of strategies. Ukraine should understand that Russia and Ukraine are neighbors and should find a way of cooling down their hostile attitudes toward one another and work to improve relations. Without any dialogue with Russia, Ukraine will have extensive internal problems. Otherwise, Russia will continue to support pro-Russian rebel forces in Eastern Ukraine because ethnic Russians constitute two-thirds of the east’s population. The rebels are not happy with Ukraine’s policy and want to continue political connections with Russia, to which they have been culturally linked for century. The pro-Russian rebels control the major eastern cities. If the Ukrainian government cannot come up with a just policy to win the hearts and minds of its citizens of Russian origin, it will have a massive civil war that might have a major fiscal impact on Ukraine’s economic development.
In global politics, unfortunately, the strongest is always right. The war in Ukraine is about those who would seek to maintain their monopoly on dictating global affairs. What the West is doing regarding Ukraine’s problem is ignoring the Russian interests in Ukraine. a promise indicated that the West and NATO would not expand toward Russia, but when the Soviet Union collapsed, the West and NATO expanded eastward, and the Baltic States and Poland joined the European Union. Now the EU and NATO are trying to bring Ukraine into joining these multinational organizations. First by supporting the overthrow of a democratically elected president and then by trying to influence elections in Ukraine, the West is hoping to ensure that an ally stays in power.
Russia or President Putin does not want to expand Russia to take over Ukraine or any other neighboring country. Instead, President Putin wants to make sure that Ukraine remains a non aligned buffer zone between Russia and the EU, and he wants Ukraine’s government to give more autonomy to Russian speaking ethnic groups in Ukraine. Aware of Moscow’s goals, the West should have more diplomacy and fewer threats.
The main objective of the West is to make Ukraine join NATO and to place missiles there to limit Russian power. The West only considers its interest in Ukraine and does not take into account how important Ukraine is to Russia’s security and economic interest as well. If the West is using democracy and sovereignty cards against Russia to legitimize its interest, Russia is using the race card against the West and Ukraine. The West is accusing Russia of violating the sovereignty of Ukraine; on the other hand, Russia says that they are protecting Russian citizens.
Ukraine’s new president should have direct dialogue with Russia and should solve the conflict in the fashion of neighbors settling disputes. If Ukraine wants to preserve the unity of the country and prevent a civil war, it needs to have a dialogue with Russia, not just among those in the West or America but must include Russia in the conversation as well. In a global economy, using economic sanctions as a tool to alter Putin’s mind will not work anymore. If the West and America place more economic sanctions on Russia, other countries will suffer. The EU’s 15% gas supply comes from Russia; France is building two warships for Russia; and Russia negotiated a thirty-year gas supply deal with China a couple of weeks ago, which entailed $55 billion dollars of investment in Russia and in construction sites. As an alternative to a crisis, the West should engage Russia, make Ukraine more of a buffer zone, and give more autonomous power to ethnic Russian speaking people. Otherwise, Ukraine will engage in civil war between ethnic Russians and Ukrainians for many years to come.
Dr. Aland Mizell is President of the MCI and a regular contributor to Mindanao Times. You may email the author at:aland_mizell2@hotmail.com